The economics of the COVID-19 pandemic: economic evaluation of government mitigation and suppression policies, health system innovations, and models of care.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the scope of health economics literature, which will increasingly examine value beyond health care interventions such as government policy and broad health system innovations. Aim: The study analyzes economic evaluations and methodologies evaluating government policies suppressing or mitigating transmission and reducing COVID-19, broad health system innovations, and models of care. This can facilitate future economic evaluations and assist government and public health policy decisions during pandemics. Methods: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) was used. Methodological quality was quantified using the scoring criteria in European Journal of Health Economics, Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) 2022 Checklist and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE) Cost Benefit Analysis Checklist. PUBMED, Medline, and Google Scholar were searched from 2020-2021. Results: Cost utility analysis (CUA) and cost benefit analysis (CBA) analyzing mortality, morbidity, quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, national income loss, and value of production effectively evaluate government policies suppressing or mitigating COVID-19 transmission, disease, and impacting national income loss. The WHO's pandemic economic framework facilitates economic evaluations of social and movement restrictions. Social return on investment (SROI) links benefits to health and broader social improvements. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can facilitate vaccine prioritization, equitable health access, and technology evaluation. Social welfare function (SWF) can account for social inequalities and population-wide policy impact. It is a generalization of CBA, and operationally, it is equal to an equity-weighted CBA. It can provide governments with a guideline for achieving the optimal distribution of income, which is vital during pandemics. Economic evaluations of broad health system innovations and care models addressing COVID-19 effectively use cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) that utilize decision trees and Monte Carlo models, and CUAs that effectively utilize decision trees and Markov models, respectively. Conclusion: These methodologies are very instructive for governments, in addition to their current use of CBA and the value of a statistical life analytical tool. CUA and CBA effectively evaluate government policies suppressing or mitigating COVID-19 transmission, disease, and impacts on national income loss. CEA and CUA effectively evaluate broad health system innovations and care models addressing COVID-19. The WHO's framework, SROI, MCDA, and SWF can also facilitate government decision-making during pandemics. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01919-z.

Understanding and Measuring Child Well-being in the Region of Attica, Greece: Round Five.

This research paper aims to present the results of the implementation of the C.W.-SMILE tool that recorded child well-being in the second semester of the 2020-2021 school year. This is the fifth round of this ongoing diachronic research. The C.W.-SMILE tool consists of six dimensions: home conditions (D.1), nutrition (D.2), unemployment of guardians (D.3), free healthcare (D.4), moral education (D.5), and leisure (D.6). The first three dimensions concern children's economic well-being, while the latter three dimensions determine children's non-economic well-being. Based on welfare economics, the combination of economic well-being and non-economic well-being constitutes children's general (social) well-being. Each dimension consists of Simple Indicators. The paper also presents the results of the school year as a whole, to help investigate the evolving impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children's well-being for more periods. The tool was used to measure the well-being of children in Attica, through questionnaires that were circulated in 22 public schools and three support centers of the organization 'The Smile of the Child' (25 units in total). The sample consisted of 509 children, belonging to three distinct school categories. The results of the second semester are mapped in seven clusters (relating to seven socio-economically homogenous groups of municipalities in Attica). Analysis of the results of the school year 2020-2021 was done based on the data collected from a sample of 1,623 children; in other words, it took into account the data relating to the entire samples that were surveyed in the first and second semesters. The central outcomes of all the previous rounds of the research are verified through a principal component analysis (PCA), and a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) which are employed for the fifth round. Finally, the paper suggests an action plan of social welfare based on a ChoiCo game designed for the needs of the fifth round of the C.W.-SMILE research.

Special Issue: Landscapes of support: farmer wellbeing and rural resilience through and beyond crises. (Special Issue: Landscapes of support: farmer wellbeing and rural resilience through and beyond crises.)

Consisting of seven articles, this special issue explores farmer wellbeing in the context of global agricultural transitions, which are demanding new ways of farming (e.g., digitalisation, net zero, economic restructuring), and in light of shock events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in four countries: Ireland, New Zealand, the UK and the USA. In exploring the impacts of future shock events and agricultural transitions on wellbeing, the issue concludes with a call to move beyond broad compilations of stressors and interventions and towards nuanced investigations of why and how poor farmer wellbeing occurs and how it can be best supported in specific contexts. The research from these four countries has wide relevance across European countries (similarity in farming systems, noting some differences), but a key message from the issue is that stressors on farmer wellbeing can be highly context-dependent according to place-based social, environmental, economic and political issues.

The welfare impacts of Covid-19 on the U.S. salmon sector

This research estimates the effects of COVID-19 on the U.S. supply and demand for salmon over two distinct periods. The first period reflects the first year (2020) since the COVID-19 outbreak, and the second period covers the outbreak's second year (2021). The effects of COVID-19 on salmon prices, domestic production, and imports are analysed through graphics, elasticities, and spatial welfare economics derived from the equilibrium displacement model of the U.S. salmon market. In the first year, COVID-19 caused a reduction in domestic demand. As a result, U.S. salmon producers and consumers lost $302 million. Consumer loss accounts for 87% of this value. In 2021, however, domestic consumption recovered, with a positive effect of $447 million on consumers, outweighing the negative impact from 2020. Together, the domestic producers and consumers gained approximately $512 million. The net market gain (a combination of the first- and second-year effects) was $210 million. These results are subject to the magnitudes of change in demand and supply due to COVID-19 and transportation costs.

Policies for life sciences and healthcare in the global health framework.

BACKGROUND: At a time when welfare contracts are in crisis, it is timely to discuss different forms of disruptive innovation and responses of medical finance and economic systems, especially adjusting with new instruments for recovery and innovative solutions for health reforms. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is to propose some ways to develop a framework for policy changes affecting life science sectors and healthcare. It aims to analyze the types of relationships between health or medical systems and the economic systems. METHOD: Medical systems used to be generally closed systems, but the new forms of delivery, especially with increase of telehealth and Mobile health (Mhealth) solutions (boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic, such as online consultations), have open traditional boundaries and generate more interactions with economic systems. It also led to new institutional arrangements at federal, national, or local levels, with different power games according to the history of institutions and cultural differences between countries. RESULTS: Which system dynamics prevail will also depend on the political systems in place, for instance very innovative open innovation systems dominated by private players such as the USA empower individuals and favor intuitive and entrepreneurial states. On the other hand, systems historically dominated by socialized insurance or former communist countries, have investigated "attunements" or adaptation mechanisms in system intelligence. However, systemic changes are not only implemented by traditional rulers (government agencies, federal reserve banks) but also face the emergence of systemic platforms dominated by Big Tech players. The new agendas expressed for instance in the United Nation (UN) framework and the set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for climate change and sustainable growth, also require global adjustment of supply and demand, in a context where the traditional drug/vaccine split is challenged by the new technologies (e.g., mRNA technologies). Investment for drug research led to the development of COVID-19 vaccines, but also potential cancer vaccines. Finally, welfare economics is increasingly criticized among economist circles; it requires new design for global value assessment framework, facing growing inequalities and inter-generational challenges in aging populations. CONCLUSION: This paper contributes to new models of developments and different frameworks for multiple stakeholders with major technological changes.

Integrated quantitative evaluation framework of sustainable development – The complex case of the Yangtze River Delta

Sustainable development is central to the current societal functioning, whose complexity demands consideration on a regional scale. However, there are disparate methods to express sustainable development, many of which use qualitative analysis cumbersome for policy-makers. Previous studies focused on environmental, economic, and social impacts without fully considering the regulation mechanisms of the plethora of administrative bodies. To fill this research gap, this research establishes an integrated assessment framework involving four pillars: environment and ecology, society and culture, economics, and governance and policy. Further, indicator systems and quantitative analysis give comparable and objective results. The current study applied them to one of the most economically significant and developed Chinese regions, the Yangtze River Delta. The result shows a dynamic variation in regional sustainability from 2010 to 2019, indicating an annual increase. Although economic and societal development has been increasing steadily, environmental development has stagnated in the past two years, and the influencing policy has fluctuated dramatically. Our analysis was done in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui. Even though all regions showed increasing sustainability, we observed an imbalance in regional sustainable development. Achieving a regional approach and enhanced regional coordination in the Yangtze River Delta is imperative and cannot be ignored by local, regional, and national policy-makers. More importantly, this study created a model capable of predicting the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on regional sustainable development. The model showed that, compared with predicted values, a 6.65% decrease in the integrated sustainability index ensued, attributed to the pandemic in Zhejiang province. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd

Remittances, Household Welfare, and the COVID-19 Pandemic in Tajikistan

Remittance inflows are now the largest source of external financing to developing countries, but little research has yet firmly established the effect of remittances on household welfare. We investigate the case of Tajikistan, one of the most heavily remittance-dependent countries in the world. We use a panel dataset collected nationwide and employ an instrumental variable estimation to confirm a positive relationship between receiving remittances and household welfare after correcting for endogeneity. Moreover, we find that the effect of remittances on household spending is more pronounced in households whose head is male, older, and/or less educated. Then, we combine our estimated coefficients with the projected decline of remittance inflows as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak and show the pandemic's adverse effect on household spending per capita. © 2022 Asian Development Bank.

Understanding and Measuring Child Well-being in the Region of Attica, Greece: Round four.

This paper aims to present the results of implementing a new, multi-dimensional and cumulative tool that records the well-being of children in the 1st semester of the school year 2020-2021, which constitutes the fourth round of an ongoing research. The tool was implemented in Attica through questionnaires circulated in twenty-five schools and three support centers for children and families under the organization, "The Smile of the Child" (twenty-eight bodies in total). The total number of children who participated in the sample was 1,114, belonging to three distinct school categories: the 6th grade of elementary school (10-11 years old), the 3rd grade of junior high (13-14 years old), and the 3rd grade of high school (16-17 years old). The results, mapped out in seven clusters, reveal evident concerns over nutrition and the moral education of students. In addition, the results indicate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the well-being of children and reveal with regard to national policy and legislation framework that the status of welfare state in Greece is ineffective and problematic. The theoretical and methodological framework of the study was confirmed through a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and a principal component analysis (PCA).The outputs of MCA reflect and confirm the good effect of "The Smile of the Child" for children in need. Finally, an action plan including the creation of policies based on public finance and fuzzy logic was suggested, the most important being the necessity of the establishment of a new Ministry for the protection of child well-being.

The impact of COVID 19 on fisher and fish farmer terms of trade

Reflecting the level of welfare of the fishers and fish farmers, terms of trade index (namely NTN/NTP) is believed to have decreased as the result of the Covid 19 outbreak. And, recognizing the important role of fisheries in the economy, understanding what have occured to the index is relevant. This paper aimed to: (i) analyze the impact of the outbreak on NTN/NTPi and (ii) identify what changes in variables have significant contribution to the NTN/NTPi decrease. The analytical method used is descriptive quantitative. The primary data consisted of: (i) fisher and fish farmer terms of trade as published by the Central Bureau of Statistics, (ii) variables that compose the price index received by fishermen / fish farmers and the index of prices paid by fishermen / fish farmers. The results showed that the decline in NTN and NTP occurred in all provinces in Indonesia. For fishers and fish farmers, variables of received price index that had the most significant effect on the decline is basic need cost such as food, drinks, cloth and transportation while variables of paid price index that had the most significant effect on the decline is capital goods.

Portrait of Indonesian family during one year the COVID-19 pandemic: analysis of factors influencing family welfare and resilience. (Special Issue: COVID-19 and historical pandemics part 2.)

This study aimed to capture aspects of Indonesian family life during a year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data collected through online questionnaire survey, followed by 1048 participants with wide-ranged socio-economic status. The COVID-19 pandemic expands the vulnerability of families, brings economic pressure, symptoms of stress, disrupts food security and psychological welfare. However, the family tries to overcome and balance it by managing resources and increasing interaction and worship. They believe they can overcome problems, accompanied by the belief that the pandemic is a trial from the Almighty. An interesting finding was that during a pandemic, many families were stepping up their donations. The important findings of this study are the higher the stress level, the lower the social welfare, psychological welfare, and family resilience. Meanwhile, the social and psychological welfare of the family is positively influenced by the welfare of the child. Family resilience is directly and positively influenced by food coping strategies and social welfare, but is negatively affected by perceived stress symptoms. Economic pressures lead to higher social welfare which is manifested by better communication, decision making, donation, and family time management. The findings of this survey show the importance of families managing stressors and increasing family resilience.

Understanding and Measuring Child Well-Being in the Region of Attica, Greece: Round Three.

This research paper aims to present the results of implementing a new multi-dimensional and cumulative tool that records child well-being, in the 2nd semester of the school year 2019-2020, which is the third round of an ongoing research. It also presents the results of the same year as a whole, in order to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the well-being of children. The tool was applied in Attica through questionnaires, addressing 22 public schools and three support centers of the organization, The Smile of the Child (25 units in total). The number of children in the sample was 560, belonging to three distinct school categories. The results of the 2nd semester were mapped out in seven clusters. The analysis of the results of the school year 2019-2020 as a whole was applied on a sample of 1,731 children; in other words, it incorporated almost the entire sample of the surveys conducted in the 1st and 2nd semesters. Finally, an action plan, based on the legal framework, focusing on mitigating the negative effects of the pandemic on child well-being is suggested. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12187-021-09910-4.

The benefits and costs of social distancing in high- and low-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Widespread social distancing and lockdowns of everyday activity have been the primary policy prescription across many countries throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Despite their uniformity, these measures may be differentially valuable for different countries. METHODS: We use a compartmental epidemiological model to project the spread of COVID-19 across policy scenarios in high- and low-income countries. We embed estimates of the welfare value of disease avoidance into the epidemiological projections to estimate the return to more stringent lockdown policies. RESULTS: Social distancing measures that 'flatten the curve' of the disease provide immense welfare value in upper-income countries. However, social distancing policies deliver significantly less value in lower-income countries that have younger populations, which are less vulnerable to COVID-19. Equally important, social distancing mandates a trade-off between disease risk and economic activity. Poorer people are less able to make those economic sacrifices. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological and welfare value of social distancing is smaller in lower-income countries and such policies may exact a heavy toll on the poorest and most vulnerable. Workers in the informal sector often lack the resources and social protections that enable them to isolate themselves until the virus passes. By limiting these households' ability to earn a living, social distancing can lead to an increase in hunger, deprivation, and related mortality and morbidity.

The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa's Covid-19 response and its consequences.

At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic South Africa was praised for decisive political leadership based on scientific advice and the strictness of the measures it imposed to limit domestic spread of the virus. This paper critically examines the South African response through two conceptual frameworks. The first frames an optimal policy response as a solution to an intertemporal welfare-optimisation problem. The need for governments to balance epidemiological considerations and public health measures with the negative consequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission is particularly acute in developing countries. The second considers the use of scientific evidence and expertise through the lens of scientism - undue deference to science. The South African government erred towards drastic action in the face of predictions by some scientific advisors of a catastrophe, but initially without a clear, public long-term plan. Its lockdown has caused serious economic and societal harm across a range of measures. But these costs have not been matched by proportional benefits in health system preparedness or, based on evidence three months into the epidemic, a definitive improvement in expected long-term epidemic outcomes. This failure, and the questionably confident basis for the original lockdown decision, has been obscured by the government's performative scientism - a public performance of deference to science - even in the absence of transparent decision-making. One consequence was a slower correction of strategy than merited by evidence of limited benefits and high costs of the lockdown. Another was an unwillingness to admit and explain errors after the fact. The latter, combined with the convincingness of the initial performance undermined the behavioural dimension of policy - leading to beliefs among citizens that confounded efforts by the state to adapt its policy stance through reopening schools, reducing the stringency of clinical guidelines and resuming various economic activities while nevertheless observing basic social distancing precautions.